James Moran / Jan 2025
Kaja Kallas, the EU's High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. Photo: European Union 2025
As Europeans wait with bated breath for the advent of the Trump administration, the EU needs to get its ducks in a row on its approach to conflicts in the middle east, not least because the fallout at home and its near abroad could be made worse if some of the wilder statements of Trump and his associates turn out to be more than just rhetoric.
Top of the list must be the conflict in Gaza, where yet another round of US-facilitated talks on an elusive ceasefire seem to be running into the sand. Trump announced this week that ‘all hell will be let loose’ if Hamas fails to release the remaining hostages, (unlikely for now) which implies further unconditional US support for Netanyahu’s continuing military campaign against what little is left standing amongst the vast areas of devastation in that blighted place.
The EU’s influence on events there is of course severely limited, above all because of its longstanding internal divisions on support for Israel. But there some measures that it could take, or at least put in motion.
One such, already proposed by Ireland and Spain last year, is to review the EU-Israel association agreement which covers a third of Israel’s trade. This, on the basis of Israel’s lack of regard for the human rights clause, an ‘essential element’ of the agreement. That means that if one side is found to be in breach, the other is entitled to suspend it.
There is more than enough reason to act. In addition to the ICC arrest warrants issued against Israel’s leadership, the EU’s own human rights envoy made a detailed investigation last year and found that there was a strong case for halting political dialogue with Israel on the basis of its violations. Josep Borrell put that to member states last November as one of his last acts as High Representative. His proposal was rebuffed for lack of consensus.
Meantime the killing, primarily of innocents, goes on and the accusations of EU double standards when it comes to values only become louder, especially in the ‘global south’, where its attitude to Gaza has been a major reason why the EU has found it so difficult to gain international support for Ukraine. With the US commitment to Zelenskyy under Trump in serious doubt, the EU will need all the friends it can muster if it is to effectively shoulder a greater burden on resisting Putin.
In the absence of an enduring ceasefire in Gaza, that consideration alone should make Mrs Kallas, who is naturally a strong advocate for Ukraine, and member states think seriously about revisiting Borrell’s proposals on Israel. Taking a harder line, and being seen to do so, on Israel can only help the EU’s international outreach on its number one foreign policy priority.
