Roman Vassilenko / Jul 2025
Image: Shutterstock
The world is undergoing a major geopolitical and economic realignment. One consequence is that regions once viewed as peripheral are becoming increasingly central to the global flows of goods, energy, innovation, and diplomacy. Central Asia, and particularly Kazakhstan, is no longer a distant frontier. It is emerging as a strategic nexus in the multipolar world taking shape before our eyes.
The rise of regional powers, the reconfiguration of global supply chains, and the race to secure critical raw materials for modern technologies are redrawing the world’s strategic map. These shifts are prompting a timely reassessment of Western engagement with Central Asia. It is a matter of strategic necessity.
The Race for Critical Minerals and Green Transition
This is especially evident in the growing importance of critical minerals, essential for technologies from electric vehicles and smartphones to wind turbines and MRI machines. The energy transition will require vast quantities of these minerals. The EU has identified 34 critical raw materials, 21 of which are classified as strategic. The EU demand for these metals is expected to increase six-fold by 2030 and seven-fold by 2050. Under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, no more than 65% of any strategic material should come from a single non-EU country by 2030.
As global demand for clean technologies accelerates, Kazakhstan can offer a stable source, helping diversify supply chains away from high-risk regions. Already the world’s leading uranium producer, supplying 43% of the global market, Kazakhstan also hosts major reserves of rare earth elements (REEs), copper, lithium, tungsten, and tantalum. With around 5,000 identified deposits, the country ranks sixth globally in total mineral reserves. At the recent Foreign Investors’ Council meeting, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s ambition to be a key player in global supply chains and announced a new tax code with a royalty regime to promote local processing.
Kazakhstan currently produces 17 of the minerals on the U.S. Critical Minerals list and 21 of the 34 on the EU’s list. A recent discovery of potentially 20 million metric tonnes of rare earth metals, including neodymium, cerium, lanthanum, and yttrium, could position Kazakhstan as the world’s third-largest holder of REE reserves, after China and Brazil. Earlier this year, the European Commission designated Kazakhstan’s Sarytogan graphite project as a strategic initiative as part of strengthening EU–Kazakhstan industrial cooperation in critical raw materials.
Kazakhstan possesses both significant reserves and processing infrastructure and in the past five years, we have attracted over $1 billion in private investment into our minerals sector.
We have formalised strategic partnerships with both the EU and the UK to build secure, sustainable supply chains. Earlier this year, Kazakhstan and the EU signed a €3 million agreement to identify joint projects and promote best practices in responsible sourcing.
Kazakhstan’s role in the energy transition goes beyond critical minerals. As both a major fossil fuel exporter and a country with green energy ambitions, Kazakhstan holds a dual position. Over 70% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports currently go to the EU, making the country the third-largest non-OPEC supplier to the bloc. Kazakhstan’s strategic location between Europe and Asia, coupled with rising Asian demand, gives it a pivotal role in global energy supply.
At the same time, Kazakhstan has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, with a near-term goal of 15% renewable energy in its electricity mix by 2030. Alongside uranium, Kazakhstan is expanding into green hydrogen and renewables. It has signed a multi-billion agreement with German-Swedish firm Svevind to build vast wind and solar farms for green hydrogen production.
Kazakhstan’s climate goals align with global sustainability efforts. Next year, we will host a UN-backed Regional Climate Conference to strengthen regional cooperation on climate change.
To unlock the full potential of cooperation on critical minerals and green energy, resilient global supply chains are essential. Yet recent global crises have exposed serious vulnerabilities. In response, attention is shifting to alternative trade routes that reduce geopolitical and logistical risks.
Central Asia is at the heart of one of the most promising routes: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or the Middle Corridor. Stretching from China through Kazakhstan and Central Asia, across the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus into Europe, it offers a land-based, geopolitically neutral link between East Asia and Europe, cutting transit times to 15 days, compared to 30-45 days by sea.
Kazakhstan plays a central logistical role along this corridor. Container traffic along the TITR grew by 63% in 2024, reaching over 4 million tonnes. In three years, freight volumes increased sevenfold from 800,000 tonnes in 2021 to 4.5 million tonnes in 2024. Kazakhstan now aims to grow that figure to 10 million tonnes by 2027 and 15 million tonnes by 2030. Furthermore, by 2029, Kazakhstan plans to reconstruct 11,000 km of railways and build 5,000 km of new highways.
As the EU seeks to de-risk and diversify its supply chains, this route can eventually increase the number of containers arriving in Europe from Central Asia from under 100,000 to over 800,000 annually. As Kyriacos Kakouris, Vice-President of the European Investment Bank, rightly noted at AIF, trade uncertainty highlights the importance of advancing the TITR as a strategic gateway linking Central Asia and Europe, fostering diversification, resilience, and economic growth. At a recent Central Asia-EU Summit in Samarkand, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated that the EU is ready to support the development of industry in Central Asian countries, announcing the launch of a €12 billion Global Gateway investment package to strengthen transport links between us and deepen cooperation in critical raw materials, digital connectivity, water and energy. We welcome this initiative that will surely bring Europe and Central Asia closer together in a sustainable and meaningful way.
A Balanced Foreign Policy
At the Astana International Forum, President Tokayev described the current international landscape as one of profound uncertainty, marked by weakening multilateralism, rising protectionism, and growing geopolitical fragmentation. He reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to constructive engagement and urged middle powers, Kazakhstan included, to play a larger role in shaping a fairer, more inclusive world order.
Our balanced, peaceful foreign policy allows Kazakhstan to maintain strong relations with the EU, the U.S., China, Russia, and the Islamic world. This has positioned the country as a trusted platform for dialogue and mediation. Last year, for example, Kazakhstan hosted talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan to help defuse tensions in the South Caucasus and advance their talks over a peace treaty.
In the context of global security, we believe Kazakhstan can also be a valuable partner on Afghanistan. Following the West’s withdrawal, we have continued engagement through trade, education, and humanitarian efforts. Our scholarships for Afghan women, collaboration on logistics and aid, and regional development initiatives help support Afghanistan’s reintegration into Central Asia, a goal aligned with global interests in security and stability. This engagement shows how middle powers can help stabilise regions where Western involvement has diminished but interests remain.
In this era of global transition, it is essential to build coalitions of capable and trusted partners. There is much to gain from a deeper partnership between the West and Central Asia: securing critical minerals, rethinking supply chains, advancing green energy, and bolstering global security. Kazakhstan stands ready to forge lasting, practical partnerships that serve the interests of both the region and the wider international community.
