Rory Fitzgerald / Dec 2024
Image: Shutterstock
Trust remains below the mid-point in most countries suggesting politicians have work to do to improve this key component of democracy.
In each round of the survey conducted every two years since 2002/03, we have asked several questions to measure respondents’ levels of trust in various institutions. Round 11 (2023/24) has now been published for 24 participating countries.
One area of particular interest is understanding national variations in the levels of trust in key political institutions including the national parliament, political parties and politicians.
All three questions are answered using an 11-point scale, from 0 (No trust at all) to 10 (Complete trust) meaning that the mid-point of the scale is 5.
ESS analysis of Round 11 data. Post-stratification weights including design weights applied.
When assessing mean scores for all countries, there is a general pattern of a hierarchy of trust with higher levels in a country’s parliament than in political parties and in turn politicians. In almost all countries it is parliament that has the highest levels of trust with political parties and politicians lagging behind.
The highest levels of trust were found towards the parliament in Norway (6.5), Finland, Switzerland (both 6.4) and Sweden (6.3).
The lowest levels of trust were towards political parties and politicians and were found amongst respondents in Croatia (2.1 and 2), Greece (2.8 and 2.7) and United Kingdom (3.3 and 3.1).
In fact, United Kingdom respondents had lower levels of trust in all three institutions, than any other west European country.
The responses to all three questions can be merged to create a mean score for political trust in each country for each round of our survey.
ESS analysis of Round 11 data. Post-stratification weights including design weights applied.
Here we find that significantly lower scores for political parties and politicians in Cyprus, Serbia, Poland and Spain bring down the overall average trust score.
When assessing the mean scores for each country to all three questions asked in Round 11 specifically, only five of the 24 countries - Finland, The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland - have mean scores above the mid-point of the scale.
This suggests there are negative levels of trust overall in the remaining 19 countries: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain and United Kingdom.
We also find a geographic split in the levels of political trust: the more trusting countries tend to be in northern and western Europe but there are exceptions.
The most notable of these is the United Kingdom, where political trust – as measured by the ESS – has dropped to an all-time low. from a high point of 4.3 in Round 1 (2002/03) to a low of 3.4 in Round 11 (2023/24).
As these questions have been asked in all 11 rounds of our survey, we can assess this combined mean score for trust in parliament, political parties and politicians over the past 22 years in 15 countries.
ESS analysis of Round 11 data. Post-stratification weights including design weights applied.
The lowest combined mean score for this measure of political trust in the 15 ever-present countries was found amongst Polish and Spanish respondents (3.3) followed by those in Portugal and the United Kingdom (3.4). The highest mean score was recorded in Norway and Switzerland (5.7).
When viewing the latest dataset compared to previous rounds, we find the highest levels of political trust ever recorded since out survey began in 11 of the 24 countries.
But there are serious questions to be asked about the contemporary political landscape in many countries – most notably in the United Kingdom – where trust has dropped.
A good example of a neighbouring country to the UK moving, albeit more slowly, in a more positive direction over the same time period is Ireland: in 2002/03 respondents recorded a mean score of 4.1 whilst this is 4.5 in the latest dataset.
In Round 6 (2012/13) of our survey this Irish mean score had dropped to 3.2 but has significantly recovered over the past decade and could perhaps offer some lessons to British politicians, who may be looking to restore public trust in politics.
Another country that has shown significant fluctuation in levels of political trust oner the past two decades is Austria. In 2002/03 the mean score was 4.3 but this dropped to 3.9 in three subsequent rounds before rising to 4.7 in Round 9 (2018/19). In 2023/24 this Austrian mean score is the same as recorded in 2002/03 (4.4).
There is evidence to suggest that eastern European countries continue to lag behind northern and most western European countries when it comes to public trust in politics.
In fact, none of the eastern European countries where our latest data is available have ever recorded a combined mean score higher than the mid-point of the scale (5).
Of the eastern European countries included in the latest dataset, Hungarian respondents exhibit the highest level of political trust (4.3). This is higher than levels recorded in the Slovak Republic (3.9), Lithuania (3.6), Slovenia (3.5), Serbia (3.2) and, lowest of all, Croatia (2.4).
Over the past 22 years however, mean scores in this region have trended in a positive direction – certainly in Hungary, Lithuania and, more recently, Slovenia.
The Croatian score is low compared to other countries, but respondents there recorded their highest ever mean score in Round 10 (2020-22) and that was essentially the same as the Round 11 score.
With many countries failing to record mean levels of trust in the national Parliament, political parties and politicians above the mid-point of the scale, there is clear room for improvement across all countries.
Many studies using our data have suggested that low levels of trust and dissatisfaction in democracy provide the basis for extreme political parties to perform well at the ballot box. However, others have suggested that low trust can be a sign that at least citizens are critically aware and taking note.
It is important that governments and politicians try to increase political trust amongst the general public to bolster democratic stability in Europe as it faces the challenges ahead.
All ESS data can be accessed and analysed online via the ESS Data Portal.
