Bruce Stokes / Dec 2024
Photo: Shutterstock
By now, Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. Presidential election and his impending return to the White House is not news. How he achieved his victory and what it may mean for the future of American politics and for U.S. engagement with the world we can begin to discern from exit polling and public opinion surveys before the election.
First the good news for American democracy. A near record percentage of eligible voters participated. While the 63.7% voter turnout was down 3 percentage points from 2020, it was the second highest such turnout since 1960. And this benefited Trump.
The President-elect’s victory was decisive, but not the overwhelming mandate that Trump claims. He won the six battleground states that he needed for a 312-226 triumph in the Electoral College (America’s 18th Century manner of electing a President). But he won the popular vote by the barest of margins: 49.9%-48.3%, only 1.6 percentage points. By comparison, Joe Biden won the Electoral College 306-232 and the popular vote 51.3%-46.9% a 4.4 percentage point margin. This was no landslide.
Yet Trump had coattails. Republicans regained control of the Senate and retained their control of the House of Representatives, by the slimmest of margins. If party discipline holds, Congress is likely to support most, if not all of Trump’s ambitious initiatives.
How did Trump defy the expectations of many pollsters and political pundits? By outperforming his 2020 vote appeal among a range of demographics.
Frustrated by the legacy of the Covid-driven disruption in their lives, a record high percentage of voters thought the nation was on the wrong track. In the past—2008, 2016, 2020—such sentiment has led Americans to support a change in leadership. And by nearly three-to-one (73%-25%), those who thought change was the most important issue voted for Trump.
Inflation was foremost in these disruptions, even though it was decreasing. And by more than two-to-one (69%-29%), those who said the economy was bad voted for Trump.
Such concerns led Trump to pick up support both from his base and among key groups of voters who have traditionally backed the Democratic candidate.
Trump gained votes among conservatives (89% up from 85% in 2020) and white evangelicals (81% up from 76%).
On the other hand, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for President, lost support among Latinos (receiving 53% of their vote compared with 65% Biden won in 2020) and young voters (55% compared with Biden’s 60%).
The election result also reflected the educational and locality divisions found in American society. By nearly two-to-one (65%-34%), Trump won the vote from whites who have less than a college education. And he did 16 points better compared to the vote share he won in 2020 among people of color without a college education, even though he lost that group.
Trump also doubled his margin of victory in rural areas (winning by 30 percentage points) and won the suburbs by 2 points (where Biden won them by 2 in 2020). Meanwhile, Harris won urban areas by 22 points, only equaling Biden’s 2020 margin.
Notable in Trump’s victory was the failure of the abortion issue to mobilize a winning majority for Harris. Democrats put abortion on the ballot in ten states, in an effort both to enshrine in those states’ constitutions a woman’s right to obtain an abortion and to spur voting turnout by women in order to help Harris. The abortion rights amendments prevailed in six of those states, but Harris lost in seven of them.
So, what might the Trump victory mean for the rest of the world?
We know from pre-election polling that only four-in-ten (40%) Trump voters support compromise with allies. This foretells more American unilateralism on a range of issues.
For example, Trump has long voiced criticism of NATO. And while it is impossible to pull out of the security agreement without Congressional support, among the American public three times as many Republicans (42%) as Democrats (14%) back decreasing or ending U.S. NATO commitments. If Trump were to refuse to disburse American funds for NATO, a procedure called impoundment, he may not be able to block U.S. payments—Congress has the final say—but it would tie up that money for months and send a signal to other NATO members and to Russia that American willingness to support Europe is waning.
On the crucial issue of Ukraine, by two-to-one voters of both parties believe that the U.S. should push for a negotiated settlement in that war-torn nation. And Trump’s leverage for such a deal will be Kyiv’s need for American support. In 2024 it took 6 months for the Congress to pass legislation releasing funds for Ukraine. With another Ukraine aid bill needed from what is now a Republican-controlled Congress, and with nearly half (47%) of Republican voters believing that the U.S. is already giving too much to Ukraine, Trump may have all the leverage he needs to dictate a negotiated settlement of the war.
Finally, Trump has threatened to impose a 20% tariff on all imports, with higher duties on products from China, Canada and Mexico. This is quite popular among his followers. Two-thirds (66%) of Trump voters support major tariffs on China and nearly four-in-ten (38%) would impose such duties on Mexico. Notably, 19% of his supporters would also impose major tariffs on French products, 18% would do so on German products, and 14% favor such duties on British products. So do not be surprised if Europe is soon a target of Trump’s protectionism.
Barely a month after the election of Donald Trump, his victory reflects a widely perceived discontent among a significant number of Americans who might normally back a more establishment candidate. They supported someone who vowed to shake things up and deliver them a better life. The next four years promise to be tumultuous times. Not only for America but for the world.
