Nick Mabey / Jan 2026
Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, Katherina Reiche, German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, and Ed Miliband, UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. Photo: European Union 2026
At yesterday’s (26 January) North Sea Summit in Hamburg, European leaders began to chart a distinctly European response to today’s geopolitical realities. By tasking their energy and defence ministers to work together on joint delivery of offshore wind, they recognised that its rapid expansion can be a frontline defence against energy blackmail, military aggression and industrial decline – in addition to building global climate resilience.
From gas weaponisation to energy autonomy
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine exposed how dangerous it is for Europe to rely on imported fossil fuels. The gas crunch that followed drove up bills, hit business competitiveness, and fuelled political instability across the EU and UK – between 2021 and 2023 European governments allocated €650 billion to shield consumers from the rising energy costs. Despite emergency measures and a rapid push on renewables, fossil fuels still provide over half of the EU’s energy and dependence on a handful of suppliers continues, leaving households and industry exposed to future crises.
The reliably windy and shallow North Seas are Europe’s best opportunity to break this dependency at scale and in line with its own strengths. Leaders have already pledged at least 300 GW of offshore wind in the region by 2050, with 120 GW by 2030, but current trajectories would deliver barely two thirds of the 2030 goal. In yesterday’s Hamburg Declaration, leaders recognised that “increasing geopolitical tensions, [….], jeopardise our energy security and underline the urgency of acting together.”
Offshore wind as a defence asset
In a world of sabotaged pipelines and contested seabeds, how energy is produced and transported is now a hard security question. Concentrated oil and gas systems are highly vulnerable to attack, as the Nord Stream explosions and strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have made clear. By contrast, a well-designed, decentralised offshore wind grid can be restored more quickly after damage and can disperse risk across multiple assets and routes.
Even more, offshore wind infrastructure can itself become a security platform. Dual use ports and the integration of surveillance sensors, monitoring equipment and even drones into wind farms and subsea cables can significantly enhance maritime awareness and deterrence.
Leaders have recognised this dual use value, including for ports. The logical next step is to ensure that defence spending frameworks – such as NATO’s decision to allow up to 1.5% of GDP to count as broader security-related investment – can be mobilised to unlock it.
An economic engine, not a cost
Critics often frame offshore wind expansion as an expense Europe cannot afford. The reality is the opposite: failing to build it is the costlier choice. Some countries, like Germany, have spent as much as 7.5% of GDP to shield citizens and firms from fossil fuel price spikes; similar bailouts may not be possible in response to future price spikes which are likely in the context of more volatile geopolitics.
Large volumes of cheap, homegrown power from the North Seas can stabilise electricity prices, underpin industrial investment and reverse trends of deindustrialisation.
Europe starts from a position of strength. European manufacturers such as Siemens Energy and Vestas held nearly 40% of the global offshore turbine market in 2024, and the region hosts deep expertise across the entire value chain including wires and transformers, civil engineering and turbine components, and innovation in floating offshore wind and green hydrogen.
But global competition is intensifying and parts of the supply chain are already dominated by China, creating new dependencies unless Europe scales its own capacity combined with strategic supply chain and offtake partnerships. A predictable, integrated North Seas market – with harmonised tender rules, standardised components and clear project pipelines – is the single most effective way to crowd in the investment needed for resilient, competitive supply chains.
Where next from Hamburg
- First, leaders need to stay engaged to keep up pace and focus. They “committed to regularly monitor […] our progress on transforming the North Seas into an interconnected offshore energy hub for all of Europe”. Delivering on this means aligning around clear principles to unlock difficult technical decisions – on integrated grid planning led by transmission system operators, on supply-chain development, and on shared security standards – within the North Seas Energy Cooperation and through closer coordination between energy and defence ministers. For that, closer EU-UK cooperation is indispensable. The next EU-UK summit later this year being a significant milestone for progress on electricity market integration and security partnerships.
- Second, closer EU–UK cooperation is indispensable. Unlocking the full value of the North Seas depends on electricity market integration and deeper security partnerships. The next EU–UK summit later this year is a critical milestone.
- Finally, Europe can turn North Seas success into global influence. The global offshore wind and grid market is set to grow rapidly, while Europe will also need to de-risk parts of its supply chain beyond its borders. Building partnerships with like-minded countries – such as Canada, Japan, Brazil and India – based on the North Seas model can strengthen Europe’s industrial base and geopolitical standing at the same time.
The author is CEO and co-founder of the independent climate think tank E3G, which recently has published an in-depth analysis of the security and economic opportunity for Europe from North Seas offshore wind: https://www.e3g.org/publications/empowering-europe-security-economic-benefits-north-seas-wind/
