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NATO’s future is in Europe’s hands

Ricardo Felipe / Jan 2025

Photo: Shutterstock

 


Since the founding of NATO, Europe has been the focus of the alliance’s defence strategy. However, the world is changing. Europe needs to keep up with the times.

Reliance on American military power has shielded European countries from the responsibility of keeping their defence budgets well-funded, but with Trump’s ‘America first’ policy on the horizon and Russia's aggressive expansionism, it is becoming increasingly clear Europe needs to step up and fulfil its commitments to NATO. European nations must invest in their militaries and take a defensive stand to safeguard Europe’s might and wealth.

Europe's vulnerabilities have proven impossible to ignore over the past few years. The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia served as a wake-up call, demonstrating the Kremlin's willingness to use force to forward its imperialist goals. These worries have only grown as a result of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where Europe is forced to choose between upholding its ideals and paying more for energy because of its reliance on Moscow. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has been able to create puppet regimes via political corruption, as demonstrated in Georgia and Belarus, threatening the integrity of free and democratic regimes across Europe.

Although Washington has been a dependable ally of Europe, its priorities are changing. The USA is paying greater attention to the Indo-Pacific area as worries about China's influence grow. As a result, Europe can no longer rely heavily on American guarantees of security. European countries must modernise their military forces and collaborate more closely to ensure they can react to threats independently if NATO wishes to continue to be a credible force.

One of NATO's biggest problems is the imbalance in defence spending among its members. The alliance sets a target of 2% of GDP for defence budgets, but many European countries fall short. While nations like Poland and Estonia exceed the target, major players like Germany have long underinvested in their military. The Bundeswehr, once a symbol of military strength, has suffered from years of neglect and now struggles to meet even basic operational needs. The situation is so dire that, in 2022, the German army chief publicly denounced the neglectful state of the German military.

This issue goes beyond budgets, it’s also about political will. For decades, many European governments prioritised redistribution programmes at the expense of defense spending. While the switch from military priorities can be understandable after the Cold War, this underinvestment has left Europe vulnerable. Outdated equipment, a lack of readiness, and limited capacity for sustained military operations are now glaring weaknesses.

Meanwhile, the United States is running out of patience. From Barack Obama to Donald Trump, US leaders have consistently called on Europe to do more for its own defence. American taxpayers are increasingly frustrated with footing the bill for European security, especially when wealthy countries like Germany and France could pay to keep their militaries in proper readiness.

The United States has long shouldered the lion’s share of NATO's defence burden, but this arrangement is increasingly untenable. Successive US presidents have called for Europe to take more responsibility for its defence. American taxpayers are growing weary of funding European security, particularly when wealthy nations like Germany and France have the means to contribute more.

Washington’s pivot to Asia only adds urgency to the situation. As the US redirects resources to counter China’s growing influence, Europe must fill the gaps left behind. If it doesn’t, NATO risks losing its deterrent power and becoming a shadow of its former self, something that would embolden aggressive nations like Russia.

To address these challenges, Europe needs to take immediate and decisive action. First, defence spending must increase. Meeting or surpassing the 2% GDP target isn’t just a goal, it’s a necessity. Germany’s recent pledge to allocate €100 billion to its military is a step in the right direction, but consistent investment over the long term is crucial.

Second, European countries need to improve cooperation. NATO works best when its members operate seamlessly together, and that means investing in joint projects like the Future Combat Air System (FCAS). By developing advanced technologies and ensuring interoperability, Europe can build a stronger, more unified defence.

Sub-regional initiatives, like the Baltic Defense Cooperation or the Joint Expeditionary Force, can also play a key role. These smaller, focused task forces can complement NATO’s broader mission by improving flexibility and responsiveness to specific regional threats.

Likewise, European countries should take a page out of Switzerland's playbook. They need to create ways to prepare the civilian population to deal with potential threats. Although mandatory conscription should be avoided, educational programmes need to be put in place. After all, no country is safer from aggression than one where anyone can be a soldier.

Lastly, Europe must demonstrate to the United States that it is a dependable partner. This isn’t just about increasing budgets; it’s about showing leadership in addressing regional crises, like the war in Ukraine. By taking a more proactive role, Europe can ease the burden on the US and help ensure NATO’s credibility as an effective alliance.

The stakes are high. Europe faces a range of existential threats which require bold and coordinated responses. By investing in its own security, European nations can reduce their reliance on the US, build its strategic autonomy, and secure a stronger, more stable future. NATO’s strength has always been rooted in unity, and now, more than ever, Europe must do its part to preserve that unity.

The time for action is now. Europe must act to be able to defend the national vows that NATO represents: freedom, democracy, and the rule of law. 

 

Ricardo Felipe

Ricardo Felipe

January 2025

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