Richard Corbett / Apr 2026
Photo: Shutterstock
No one should be surprised by the growing number of voices calling for Britain to return to the EU, or at least to accelerate and deepen the “reset” currently underway. There are four sets of reasons for this:
Economic: Brexit has turned out to be even more costly than anticipated. Two years ago, the OBR (the UK’s official economic forecast office) reckoned that Britain’s economy was some 4% smaller than it would have been had it remained in the EU. Now, the latest calculations by several academic and independent institutes estimate the figure to be even higher. Chancellor Rachel Reeves spoke of 8% in her Mais Lecture last month.
Such an economic loss has consequences. It would have produced an extra £80 or £90 billion every year in tax revenue. Britain’s fraught debates on the government can afford to spend would be very different!
The government is seeking to attenuate the economic damage of Brexit by aligning with EU single market standards and rules in various sectors, to cut red tape, paperwork and border inspections. It is starting with agriculture and energy, hoping to move on to other sectors such as chemicals and pharmaceuticals. This is sensible. But it is slow, won’t change the economic dial for years, and if it succeeds will align Britain with EU rules on which it has no say when the EU wants to change them, virtually turning the UK into a non-voting member of the EU. Many are beginning to ask why not go the whole way and get Britain’s seat back at the table where decisions are taken that will in any case affect it.
Geopolitical: With Putin on one side and Trump on the other, it is becoming more obvious by the day that the interests and values of Britain and its neighbours converge. And Britain can certainly no longer rely on a supposed “Special Relationship” with the United States, a notion given its last rites by Trump.
Others seem to be reaching the same conclusion. Iceland is to hold a referendum in August on applying to join the EU. In Norway a debate has started. Every country in the western Balkans wants to join (some are already deep into their accession negotiations), as do Ukraine and Moldova. If Britain stays out it will look isolated and irrelevant on the world stage.
Public opinion: Despite predictions that the British public would rally behind Brexit once it happened, the opposite has happened. The YouGov opinion poll of February 2026 indicated that of those who have reached a view (i.e. taking away the don’t know/don’t care/don’t vote), 64% would vote to rejoin the EU.
Significantly, this shift has been gradual but relentless. It is driven partly by demographic factors: the age profile of how people voted in 2016 was such that, 10 years later, even if nobody had changed their mind, there would be a majority in favour of EU membership. But it is also driven by those Leave voters who were not gung-ho Brexiteers realising that Brexit bears no resemblance to what was promised. They were told that it would be easy, save lots of money (that would all go to the NHS), and keep our access to Europe while securing wonderful new trade deals across the planet. None of this has materialised. A significant number of Leave voters have therefore changed their view, especially if they work in a sector that has been particularly affected, or if they have been irritated by the multiple little things that Brexit has made more difficult, from ordering small packages abroad to joining the longer non-EU queue at border checkpoints if they travel.
Neither of these two drivers of the shift in opinion – demography and changing minds – is going to go in reverse. The 62% will rise relentlessly to 64%, 66%, 68%... This will make it easier for Labour to be less cautious.
Already, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats (and the Nationalists in Scotland and Wales) are alert to this and are trying to out-flank Labour on this issue. Labour has lost far more voters to them than to Reform and is increasingly aware of the danger.
Positive signals from Europe: While some have claimed that the EU would not want Britain back, recent signals indicate that it would be welcome. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Keir Starmer in January that he was “dreaming of a Breturn”. Finnish president Alexander Stubb, in his Chatham house lecture last month, said that “Brexit was a colossal mistake, and the UK should rejoin the European Union”. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told The Rest is Politics podcast that he would “definitely like to have the UK back on board in the EU. I think societies can make mistakes, but they can also correct those mistakes”.
This is not just about sympathy for Britain. It’s in the EU’s interest too. Losing a member for the first time in its history – and a major one at that - was not a good look for the EU. For it to return would underscore the EU’s value. Brexit also hurt the EU economically (albeit not as badly as for Britain) and geopolitically. There would be a degree of good will and flexibility in any negotiation on a full UK return – more than on the small steps currently envisaged which some regard as British cherry-picking.
So, all in all, those, like the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, who said that “rejoining the EU is now clearly in our national interest”, are not outliers on the fringe of the debate but reflect significant shifts in the calculations of what is in Britain’s (and Europe’s) interest, supported by a growing proportion of the public. Ten years on from the referendum, won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies, it is time to reopen this debate. As one of the leading Brexiteers (David Davis) once said “If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be a democracy”.
