Tom Brufatto / Oct 2026
Photo: Shutterstock
When the sun rose on June 24, 2016, one thing was clear: the relationship between the UK and the EU had entered a new, arduous chapter. As Boris Johnson and Michael Gove blinked into the cameras, shuffling their papers, and awkwardly admitting to reality - ‘terribly sorry chaps, there is, in fact, no plan’ - the rupture our nation, and continent, was about to embark upon became painfully evident. The next ten years of chaos, contention, and conflict still lay ahead. But we’d gone through a portal. Somehow, everything had changed.
Watching Andy Burnham’s leader’s speech at the Labour Party conference this week, marked a similar turning point; if not in scale, but in what it signified. A pivotal moment for the future of UK-EU relations. As the Prime Minister trod the Liverpool conference stage, he levelled with the British people about the decade(s) of decline the nation has endured. And the tectonic plates of reality began to shift, just slightly, under our feet. New possibilities arose on the horizon ahead. The relief was palpable.
From Labour’s perspective, the path forward for the UK heads only in one direction: towards both tangible economic improvement, and a rock-solid political dividend. As our research at Best for Britain, including detailed seat-level megapolls conducted by YouGov, has consistently demonstrated, the closer to a pledge to restore the UK’s EU membership Labour gets, the more votes, and - crucially - seats, it stands to gain, across the whole of Great Britain. Our key findings, first covered by ITV’s Robert Peston, reveal that including such a pledge in the Labour Party’s next general election manifesto was the only scenario to put Labour within touching distance - at just five seats shy - of a majority government at the next election.
This stands entirely to reason. The groundswell in public opinion around Europe - and the ongoing, death-by-a-thousand-cuts catastrophe leaving the EU has been for our economy, our public services, our trade, our universities, our scientists, our young people, students and artists - was hushed at first. But, as our data shows, the mood has shifted. A majority of Brits would now support EU membership, including one in five former leave supporters. The politicians - at last - are catching up with the country.
But Burnham went further still. Following his speech, during an interview with the BBC, the PM made another crucial - and underappreciated - step forward. He outlined that the options for closer relations with Europe are the Customs Union, the EU Single Market or EU membership - “all the way”. The significance of these words should not be underestimated. For the first time, there is an understanding - at the very top of the British government - that further bespoke arrangements outside of the EU's existing structures are unlikely to work. It means the PM and his European counterparts are, at last, speaking the same language on the future relationship, from the get go.
In another welcome move, Burnham has also rightly planted these green shoots firmly in the earth of existing talks. He is clearly linking the prospect of a substantial step forward to the next UK-EU summit, now reportedly to be held on November 20. Agreements on food and drink, youth mobility and emissions trading are yet to be finalised. Tying next steps to these completed deals would mean the next summit is internalised - on both sides - as an all-around political and diplomatic success. On the specific options the PM laid out, what is now crucial is that these conversations must focus solely on overcoming, together, our shared challenges: tackling the cost of living, driving economic growth, and the defence and security of our continent. As our MRP work also makes clear: there really is only one arrangement which can deliver for both the UK and the EU, and that is to restore our full membership.
Entering a Customs Union would not materially address any of the shared challenges we face. UK companies and trade bodies are ambivalent at best, or against it. Politically, it would improve Labour's seat haul, but nowhere near enough to win an election, potentially leading to a hung parliament, and a Reform UK and Conservative coalition government. The same political scenario applies to the Single Market: an even less suitable path for the UK, despite offering a more substantial economic boost than a Customs Union. The Single Market would require the PM to propose handing regulatory control of vast swathes of our economy, including financial services, to the EU. We’d be the only G7 economy with this type of arrangement, making it understandable why many sectors would jump at the growth prospects, but recoil at handing over the reins entirely.
Ultimately, Burnham’s speech suggests he knows it well. Membership of the EU is the only option that ticks all the boxes. It delivers the most growth, it is what the British people want. It places Labour, currently enjoying a bounce in the polls, within touching distance of a majority, and it ensures we maintain control of the rules and regulations affecting our economy by giving us a seat at the table. The door has - finally - been opened. The taboo has been smashed. EU membership is back on the table. It’s time to make it the closing paragraph of this new chapter in UK-EU relations.
